Cascadia Report

Category: Politics

  • Burner launches first TV ad

    Darcy Burner launched her first TV ad in her challenge to Republican Congressman Dave Reichert (R – WA, 8th) today. The introductory 60-second spot can be viewed on her campaign web site.

    The ad is running thanks to Burner’s fundraising, which made the suburban Seattle U.S. House race one of the few competitive ones in the country and the only in Cascadia that’s drawn significant national attention. Republicans drew fire for inaccurate TV ads paid for by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

    Burner’s restrained ad makes the case for “change,” hitting all the popular notes. She talks about her family connections to the military and her personal history, all over film of her walking with her family and talking with nodding senior citizens.

  • Green’s strange rationale to defeat cantwell

    Green Party candidate Aaron Dixon has a novel justification for his run against Senator Maria Cantwell, who is well-known for having a strong environmental record.

    Dixon claims there’s no difference between Cantwell and Republican challenger Mike McGavick, who benefits from oil industry contributions and whose environmental policy includes support for increased drilling on public lands. Never mind that McGavick’s more pro-Iraq war than Cantwell or that Cantwell led the campaign against oil drilling in the Arctic, allowing tankers in Puget Sound and for more renewable energy.

    Apparently Dixon doesn’t mind if he siphons enough votes for the Republican to win: “Maria has supported the war, and the war has created a tremendous environmental destruction in Iraq,” Dixon said, according to the report.

  • Cantwell gets help

    Seattle radio and newspapers are prominently covering Senator Maria Cantwell’s fundraiser Monday night with Bill Clinton at Benaroya Hall. Supporters paid $250 to $2,500 or more for the event.

    But outside the hall, the campaign still hasn’t caught on. While Cantwell’s campaign is still mostly visible from occasional cable TV ads, challenger Mike McGavick is shoring up support outside the Seattle media spotlight. A report about his recent campaign appearance in Moses Lake shows how he needs to artfully criticize national Republican policies even when he’s in agreement with the incumbent. One example: Senate Republicans vetoed funding for popular veterans’ programs that Cantwell supported.

    McGavick is running against D.C., not against Cantwell. If McGavick can continue to do an end run around Cantwell with his broad critique of D.C.—he could win. And Cantwell is letting this happen. She needs to make McGavick run against her—and things like her VA funding vote— if she wants to short-circuit McGavick’s charming attempt to co-opt public anger to his advantage.

    Is the appearance of this analysis in one of Seattle’s liberal weeklies proof that the race is closing?

  • Need a passport to cross the border?

    Would requiring a passport to cross the international border prevent terrorism? It didn’t stop the 9/11 hijackers, who were in the U.S. legally.

    So why does Senator Maria Cantwell support a passport requirement to go between the U.S. and Canada? She said she does because — you guessed it — security is a top priority. Surprisingly for a Republican challenger, Mike McGavick said he doesn’t support the Bush Adminstration’s passport plan.

    Often going against the Homeland Security Department’s wishes, Cantwell and Senator Patty Murray have supported no-nonsense ideas like additional guards on the border and more stringent security at our ports. So why support the passport requirement, which will hurt this region?

    Just last month, Governor Gregoire and Premier Campbell united in opposition to a passport requirement. Such a rule would hamper existing business and make it more difficult to for Cascadia to profit from the 2010 Olympics. All without demonstrably improving our security.

  • Oregon law a bad model for Washington

    Oregon’s new “property rights” law, which spawned copycat Initiative 933 in Washington this fall, got more national attention today.

    A New York Times story highlights the case of a man who wants to build a power plant on land he owns inside a national monument near Bend. According the law, which was passed as a ballot measure in 2004, government either waives land-use rules to let him do it or pays him $203 million. Guess which is more likely?

    Being compensated for the loss of ability to profit from your own property sounds great. But the consequences are dire.

    Oregon property owners have filed 2,755 claims covering 150,455 acres, according to a Portland State University institute that’s tracking the measure’s impact, the article says. The claims could amount to more than $3 billion in compensation if they were paid. Instead Oregonians are getting ready for houses and strip-malls as landowners subdivide their lots.

    “Measure 37 has disabled the tools used over four decades to prevent sprawl and preserve agriculture and forest land in Oregon,” wrote Sheila A. Martin, a professor of urban planning at the university, in the article.

    The story makes the case that mainstream Oregonians are flummoxed to see their model land-use laws dismantled by an end-run around growth-management laws passed by the people’s representatives. Hopefully Washington voters realize that harmless-sounding ballot measures can have painful consequences.

    In Washington, the fledgling campaign against Initiative 933 is here.

  • Cantwell’s ground campaign still lags

    TV spots for Senator Maria Cantwell are blanketing the cable channels, a sign that her high-priced reelection campaign is finally underway. But what about the ground campaign?

    A 500-mile roadtrip around southwestern Washington this weekend found a single Cantwell sign (just outside South Bend, in Pacific county). That puts the ratio of her signs to challenger Mike McGavick’s at roughly 1 to 500+, at least in the state’s southwest.

    This week’s edition of the Pacific County Press, the local weekly, has a photo and small story of McGavick’s visit with loggers in the area in early July. His campaign Web site has detail on the visit and the how to get involved. Cantwell’s new site shows no sign of any organization in the area.

    Clearly Cantwell doesn’t expect to win rural counties, instead planning to use advertising to win big in the Seattle area. But with McGavick making a challenge in King County, will that hands-off approach be enough?

  • Cantwell campaign begins

    Senator Maria Cantwell’s reelection campaign has officially begun, with the first commercials on TV and a new Web site online. And it’s not a minute too soon.

    Last Saturday there were several Cantwell signs in the lawn of the middle school in West Seattle where an energy forum put together by 34th district Democrats was held. Inside, an unstaffed campaign table had dozens of extra signs and stickers, and a volunteer sign up sheet with no names on it.

    After the forum, I drove 200 miles to south-central Washington and didn’t notice a single sign of the campaign — but plenty for challenger Mike McGavick. The Goldendale Sentinel had a half-page ad for McGavick’s “Open Mike!” tour, which had been, of course, well received there.

    In the last week Cantwell has made strides sowing up support from the left by hiring one of her former challengers. The governor of New Mexico stumped for her during the weekend and Bill Clinton is due later this month. Yet she still faces a primary election challenge and there will be a Green and Libertarian on the November ballot.

    The question is will Cantwell hold enough of rural Washington AND energize her urban base enough to hold on. Or is it already too late?

  • McGavick can win

    Democrats seem to think that Republican Mike McGavick’s campaign for Senate against Maria Cantwell is a lost cause. They should reconsider.

    McGavick’s strategy is to gradually build a likable image with a thorough campaign and avoid fleshing out most policy details as long as possible. That way he avoids discussing issues that divide Republicans and that could alienate the average moderate voter (things like abortion, Iraq, gay rights, etc.). The strategy almost worked for Dino Rossi’s campaign for governor in 2004 — a campaign that McGavick advised.

    Senate_large_sealMcGavick rolled out the personality offensive again Monday with another kickoff for a statewide bus tour. He’s already made headlines by calling off attack dogs. “We’re going to change politics and start by changing the way of the campaign,” he told a crowd of about 50 volunteers and supporters at the campaign headquarters in Seattle.

    So far the feel-good campaign seems to be working, closing McGavick’s gap with Cantwell. His campaign website provides details about his statewide organization, a full calendar of events and exactly how to get involved. It’s easy to tell who to call in Okanogan County, for example, if want to volunteer there.

    Cantwell is already having trouble generating volunteers, according to the state Democratic leadership, yet her website still fails to provide any information on her campaign. Even if someone WANTED to get involved it’s extremely difficult to find out how.

    Liberal bloggers seem to think that McGavick’s campaign is a long shot because of President Bush’s unpopularity. Others have told me they’re surprised at how poorly McGavick’s campaign is being run, with its emphasis on civility. But McGavick doesn’t need a majority to win. A Green Party candidate may take 2 percentage points from Cantwell, while a Libertarian candidate may take one point from Cantwell and two from McGavick.

    Judging from its silence so far, Cantwell seems to be banking that voters aren’t thinking about November yet. But it looks like McGavick’s campaign is ready.

  • Can Democrats win with gas?

    Washington state Democrats won’t let Republicans go unchallenged this year, according to new Democratic Party Chair Dwight Pelz.

    The party recently added a full-time PR person and plans to add another, he said. It unveiled a revamped website and plans to field candidates in most districts statewide.

    It also plans to go for gut issues: “Last time, Republicans got us with guns, gays and God. Now we have a ‘G’ — gas,” Pelz told a group of about 40 party organizers at a recent meeting in Renton.

    But will it be enough? Gas costs have fallen slightly in the last month to an average of $3.04 a gallon statewide, according to AAA. While that’s still almost 70 cents more than a year ago, the change suggests that gas could be a short-lived issue.

    Meanwhile, to many, “guns, gays and God” remain a constant threat. And it seems that Democrats who are close to those issues may be in the party’s crosshairs.

  • Rep. Reichert challenged on law-and-order

    Mailboxrural2black70011bl600Rep. Dave Reichert (R – WA, 8th) violated Congressional rules governing taxpayer-funded mail to constituents, Democratic rival Darcy Burner charged Tuesday.

    The congressman has blanketed his suburban Seattle district with 14 mailings since October, including this week — a violation of rules banning mailings within 90 days of an election, Burner said. The primary is Sept. 19.

    “This from an ex-sheriff who plans to run on law and security,” Burner said at a county Democratic meeting Tuesday. “This just shows that he doesn’t think the rules apply to him.”

    The charge is the latest sign of the rising stakes in the 8th district, which has always sent Republicans to Congress while increasingly voting Democratic in other races.

    Burner didn’t say whether a formal complaint is planned. Reichert’s campaign couldn’t be reached for comment late Tuesday.

    Burner’s campaign is considered one of the best shots Democrats have this year. This month President Bush made one of his only presidential visits to the state to raise money for Reichert.

    There are still worries that Burner can’t pull off an upset. Democrats are 0-for-12 in the 8th district — even in years when Democrats did well statewide and nationally. Aggressive public relations and fundraising could smack of elitism and hurt Burner in the district, which includes crucial rural areas, according to this line of criticism.

    Burner says that’s not a concern. “We believe in taking events to where the people are,” she said Tuesday. “It’s helped tremendously.”

    Burner said she’s raised more than $1 million, including $920,000 from within Washington. She needs to raise another $75,000 by Friday in order to pass the national Democratic party’s targets, she said. Recent events with President Bush reportedly raised Reichert about $700,000.